The Inside Track – July Insights

31 July 2025

Welcome to the Twelfth Edition of The Inside Track!
A clear lens in a noisy world, helping you filter the headlines and hold your course.

August is here. Can you believe it?

It seems like just the other day in April, when the markets imploded, economists predicted doom and gloom, the overarching Trump stories became more talked about than our Springbok rugby team, and yes – the never-ending Cape Town revert… aaah, the rain… the cold…

A lot has happened since, and while the world’s still carrying its share of strain and uncertainty, here’s some light.

It’s a month to go until spring, when the results of good rains in the Cape will show once again in the abundance of flowers and the breathtaking Canola fields. The rivers are flowing, the dams are filling up, the JSE hit the highest record in history, the S&P hit an all-time high, and the unintended consequences of Donald Trump’s actions have resulted in countries looking inwards to become less reliant and bolster their own industries.

Forget MAGA –  this is MIGA: Make International Great Again.

Gold recently hit a record high. Platinum is trading at its strongest level in over a decade. Bitcoin is at an all-time high. It’s been a terrific month of sport with Wimbledon, the Tour de France, and Formula 1.

And once again, South Africans have delivered. We won the World Test Championship in cricket, Akani Simbine broke Usain Bolt’s sprint record, and Tete Dijana claimed his third Comrades and Gerda Steyn won her fourth.

The Boks are building momentum ahead of the 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia, and with Rassie involved, the plan probably started two years ago and includes a decoy water boy.

Cape Town has also quietly done something worth celebrating. Permanent waste interceptors have been installed across 20 rivers and canals. It’s a smart initiative from the City and Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis, and it’s already making a visible difference.

The world isn’t short on problems, but it’s not short on perspective either, depending on where you’re looking.

Market indicators

Returns % (to 25 July 2025)

Market Pulse: A Quick Read on the Numbers Above

So far, 2025 has been a solid run. Despite early volatility, major indices are up meaningfully year to date. The focus now is on valuations, earnings, and interest rate expectations – all of which will shape how the second half unfolds.

There will be bumps. That’s normal. But for now, the direction’ is forward.

Global Market News

• U.S.–EU trade agreement reached: A 15% tariff deal replaced the previously threatened 30%, easing immediate pressure.

• U.S.–China trade talks ongoing: Negotiations in Sweden continued this week. No new tariffs announced.

• Federal Reserve holds rates: Interest rates remain unchanged. Revised GDP figures showed underlying growth is softer, rate cuts in September look unlikely.

• IMF raises Australia’s growth outlook: Forecasts now sit at 1.8% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026, despite global uncertainty.

• UK inflation rises to 3.6%: Consumer prices moved higher in June, adding complexity to the Bank of England’s rate path

South Africa

• Inflation edges up: June CPI came in at 3.0%, slightly higher than May, but still within the Reserve Bank’s target range.

• SARB expected to cut rates: A 25 basis point rate cut is anticipated at the upcoming policy meeting, as inflation remains contained.

• Rand holds steady: The rand traded in a narrow range this week, with markets watching both the SARB decision and U.S. trade developments

• Treasury explores offshore funding: Government is seeking foreign-currency loans to help close the current fiscal year funding gap.

Mistakes That Quietly Undermine Wealth

Confusing investment returns with financial progress

Many people see investments as the solution. A fix for their future, or a shortcut to peace of mind. But an investment is just a plug. The real question is: what hole is it meant to fill?

Without a plan, even a 10% or 20% return creates more questions than answers. Should you spend it? Keep it? Contribute less to your investment? This fuels uncertainty and anxiety, both before and after retirement.

And then there’s the noise. Friends, colleagues, podcasts, social media – everyone’s a financial expert, or can apparently see the future. It’s easy to get caught in the crossfire: do nothing, sell everything, chase what’s working.

Money, like health, is highly emotive. And without a clear understanding of why you’re doing what you’re doing, the emotional forces behind the market can potentially unravel even the most experienced investor. Panic and greed affect everyone.

Returns don’t give clarity. Planning does. That’s what turns investment performance into real financial freedom.

Food for Thought

Sometimes the grass really is greener on the other side. 

I was driving back toward Cape Town along the N2 when I saw something that made me smile.

As usual, near the airport, the familiar herd of cows was grazing along the roadside. They’re often there, minding their business and never causing much fuss. But this time was different.

One lone, healthy-looking cream-coloured cow stepped off the shoulder and calmly began to saunter across the highway. Not in a rush, not the least bit bothered. Just slow, deliberate, and oddly sure of itself.

Naturally, traffic came to a halt. Still, not that unusual for this stretch. But what made it memorable was that the traffic didn’t start moving again. Why? Because the cow had spotted a perfect patch of lush green grass on the Airport side of the highway and decided it wasn’t going anywhere. It stood there, right on the edge of the road, happily tucking into its find.

I had to laugh. Who doesn’t love Africa!

And maybe the moral of the story?

Most people wait for a clear path before they act. In markets, in planning, in life. They stay on the edge, hoping for certainty.

But sometimes clarity only comes once you step forward. Even if it holds up traffic.

Quote for the Month

Life etches itself onto our faces as we grow older, showing our violence, excesses or kindnesses.  

Rembrandt van Rijn (1606-1669)

Visual Insight of the Month

What does coffee have to do with investing?

When a more expensive third option is added, people start choosing the middle coffee. Not because it changed, but because it feels better by comparison.

The same thing happens with investments.

Add a riskier fund, and suddenly the second-riskiest one looks more reasonable. Nothing changed except the framing.

This is called the decoy effect. It is a type of framing that shifts how something feels by changing what it is compared to.

So what can you do with that?

Use it as a check-in.

Next time you are weighing a financial decision or a lifestyle change, pause and ask:

“Would this still feel like the right choice if the other options weren’t influencing me?”

That one question helps separate instinct from clarity. And that is often the difference between reacting and thinking.

Perspective for the Long Run

The Dopamine Trap

You open the app. Check your balance. It’s up. A small hit of dopamine. You feel good. The next day, it’s down. A wave of doubt creeps in.

This cycle of highs and lows – isn’t investing. It’s emotional roulette. And yet, it’s how many people engage with their portfolios. Not as a strategy, but as a scoreboard.

Here’s what’s really happening:

Every time you check your portfolio, your brain gets a small reward. A dopamine release. It’s the same chemical feedback loop behind social media, slot machines, and sugar cravings. The more you check, the more your brain wants to check again. Not because you’re acting strategically, but because you’re unconsciously chasing another hit of emotional validation.

Over time, that loop builds anxiety, not clarity.

You become more reactive. Less rational. You start chasing green days and fearing red ones. Peaks and dips begin to matter more than they should.

You end up timing emotions instead of spending time in the market.

But investing isn’t a game of feelings. It’s a game of structure. And structure doesn’t need daily monitoring. It needs discipline.

Here’s the test:
If you couldn’t check your portfolio for six months, would your plan still work?

If the answer is no, the problem isn’t the market. It’s the plan.

I hope this month’s mailer gave you something valuable to think about. Looking forward to catching up again at the end of August. Until then, and as always, I’m just a click away if you’d like insight, guidance or assistance.

Take care, stay mindful, and enjoy the moments that matter.