The Inside Track – October Insights

31 October 2025

Welcome to the Fourteenth Edition of The Inside Track!

Well hello again !
Apologies for not sending the mailer at the end of September. I’ve been working on a few design updates and additions to my service offering that should all add value going forward. I’ll share some of those changes in the next edition.

So, let’s kick it off. What a year and what a ride. South Africa is officially off the grey list (yes, please!), summer is around the corner, and after a long year, I’m sure most are looking forward to Christmas with family, loved ones, and maybe just a bit of a breather.

It’s been one of the most dynamic years I’ve experienced since I started in the financial industry 26 years ago (yip, you read that right), and here we are with 2026 now only eight weeks and five days away.

So what’s happening in South Africa?
Local equities have extended their winning streak to eight months, the longest since 2013, supported by renewed optimism in the domestic economy, expectations of global monetary easing, and stronger demand for emerging markets. It’s all transient, of course, but then again, everything in the world is.

Market Indicators

Returns % (to 24 October 2025)

Market Pulse: A Quick Read on the Numbers Above

The so-called “September effect” proved to be more myth than market pattern this year. September delivered firm gains across local markets, and that momentum carried through into October.

By late October, the All Share Index had climbed 35.4% year-to-date, with bonds up 16.5% and property 19.4%. Much of the strength has come from the basic materials sector and heavyweights like Naspers and Prosus, which have carried the broader index higher. Retail shares, however, continue to lag, a reminder that rallies are rarely even, but we take our wins where we get them.

Cash returns held steady around 5.6%, while global markets also moved higher, with offshore equities now up more than 40% in US dollar terms for the year. The Rand ended the period slightly firmer near R17.18, trimming some offshore gains in rand terms.

Where to from here?
We’re in the middle of a bull market. Interest rates, price stability, and full employment remain the main balancing act for central banks, and that will influence how long the current run lasts. For now, the path of least resistance still points higher.

Key Global Market Insights

• The Federal Reserve recently cut rates by 25 basis points to around 3.75 % -4.00 %, but emphasised that further cuts in the near future are not guaranteed.
• US tech earnings lifted sentiment, with strong results from Apple and Amazon reigniting global risk appetite.
• Amazon surged 13% on its fastest cloud growth in nearly three years, while Apple beat forecasts and issued a positive holiday outlook.
• AI remains the dominant market theme, with Nvidia securing new partnerships in South Korea and investor demand for AI-linked companies still strong.
• YouTube introduced AI-powered video upscaling, improving the quality of older, low-resolution videos across TV, web, and mobile as part of Google’s wider AI expansion.
• Global equities have added more than $17 trillion in value since April, supported by strong tech earnings and easing trade tensions.
• Bubble fears have eased, with the AI rally broadening beyond the United States into Asia and Europe.
• The United States and China extended a one-year tariff truce, showing a willingness to ease trade barriers and maintain stability.

Key South African Market Insights

• South Africa is off the FATF grey list, restoring confidence in its financial systems and reinforcing signs of institutional progress. The move should support sentiment, strengthen the rand, and ease long-term borrowing costs.

• Inflation ticked up to 3.4%, still within the Reserve Bank’s target range but enough to reduce the likelihood of a near-term rate cut.

• Business confidence improved again, lifted by stronger tourism, export momentum, and higher precious-metal prices

• Plans to lift the moratorium on shale gas exploration have renewed attention on the Karoo Basin’s potential, with investment interest expected to follow once new regulations are finalised.

• A new fruit export agreement with China allows five South African stone-fruit varieties to enter that market, expected to boost agricultural exports and support rural employment.

• A lower inflation target could save the fiscus close to R900 billion in debt-service costs over time, freeing up fiscal space for essential spending.

• Fuel prices are expected to ease in November, providing some near-term relief for households and transport costs.

Mistakes That Quietly Undermine Wealth

When U.S. tariffs first hit the headlines earlier this year, many expected markets to fall through the floor indefinitely. Yet months later, the data tells a very different story. The average tariff being paid is about 11%, not the 17% headline number, and much of the impact has been absorbed or rerouted through new trade paths.

A softer U.S. housing market has helped take the edge off tariffs in the U.S., while here at home, a weaker dollar and stronger commodity demand have breathed new life into South Africa’s basic materials sector after years of anemic growth.

Those who sold their positions in that dip or sat out (didnt invest) during the tariff noise might wish they hadn’t gotten caught up in the fear mongering, with markets around the world now near record highs and firmly in a bull run.

Events like tariffs, COVID, or elections always seem unique, but the pattern rarely changes. Fear moves faster than facts. When uncertainty hits, don’t underestimate your own disposition to emotional bias !

Knowing what you own and why you own it matters most.

Food for Thought

A million users in five days. What used to take years now happens in a week. It’s easy to feel uneasy; this pace of change feels different, almost too fast to process. But we’ve been here before. Every era brings something that feels overwhelming at first, then slowly becomes second nature. We’re remarkably good at adapting.

This new dawn will be no different. What matters now is how we use it, not whether it happens.

It will be interesting to see whether John F. Kennedy’s line, “a rising tide lifts all boats,” still holds true in an age of focused capitalism. I’m optimistic/hopeful that it will.

Quote for the Month

“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”

Mark Twain

Visual Insight of the Month

Life is all about perspective, and if it’s not, it should be. It usually makes life a lot easier, less stressful, and maybe even adds a few more years to your life.

This map looks at freedom in terms of rights, choice, and openness, not wealth. By that measure, South Africa still sits in the light blue zone among countries where people can live, speak, and move freely.

Yes, we have challenges, but we also have much to be grateful for. The headlines don’t always show it, yet compared to much of the world, we have more light than we think.

Perspective for the Long Run

The Cost of Convenience: How Effortless Choices Add Up to Expensive Outcomes

Markets may rise when the path of least resistance points higher.

In our personal finances, the same principle can quietly work in reverse. The easier things become, the less attention we give them. Over time, small conveniences can create drift, not just in portfolios, but in everyday decisions.

We’ve engineered our lives for ease. Fast payments. One-click orders. Automated debits. Everything designed to flow. And it works, until you look closer.

Convenience has a cost. Not one that shows up as a fee or charge, but one that creeps in quietly through repetition, eroding decision quality and financial momentum.

1. The Automation Trap
Debit orders feel responsible. Auto-renewals feel efficient. But once a payment becomes background noise, it stops being questioned. Gym memberships you don’t use. Subscriptions you don’t value. Services you barely remember signing up for. It’s not the money, it’s the inertia. What started as helpful becomes habitual.

2. Financial Numbness
Convenience makes spending frictionless. Tap to buy. Swipe to upgrade. Scan and walk out. But friction used to be useful. It slowed us down, made us think. Without it, we spend faster, with less reflection. The result is a life that looks curated but lacks intention.

3. The Displacement Effect
Ease encourages consumption over investment. When something is simple, it becomes our default. It’s easier to add another streaming service than to increase an investment debit. Not because one is better, but because one is easier.

4. The Decline of Deliberate Decisions
The more we automate, the fewer choices we make with care. We don’t reassess debit orders. We don’t revisit investments. We let structures run longer than they should because reviewing them feels like admin. But convenience isn’t neutral. It rewards stasis.

5. Convenience Is Not the Same as Simplicity
A well-structured life can be simple. But a life built on convenience is often cluttered. The two get confused. True simplicity is intentional. It clears space. Convenience accumulates. And over time, that accumulation becomes a drag on progress.

The danger isn’t that you’re doing something wrong.
It’s that you’re doing less of what’s right, because your systems reward passivity.

In a world that wants you to choose ease every time, planning becomes an act of resistance.

A choice to stay conscious. A decision to make hard things visible again.

I hope this month’s mailer gave you something valuable to think about. Looking forward to catching up again at the end of November.

Until then, and as always, I’m just a click away.

Take care, stay mindful, and enjoy the moments that matter.