The Inside Track – February Insights

28 February 2025

Welcome to the Eighth Edition of The Inside Track!
Markets. Money. The forces shaping them. No noise – just clear insights to help you stay ahead and make smarter financial moves.

Markets don’t move in straight lines, and neither does the economy. Right now, we’re in one of those in-between moments where interest rates, inflation, and political shifts are all pulling in different directions.

Globally, central banks are walking a fine line, and geopolitics is adding another layer of complexity. Locally, the budget delay has raised eyebrows, but the bigger picture remains the same.

Markets don’t wait for perfect conditions; they price in what’s next. Understanding these shifts isn’t about following headlines, it’s about knowing what really matters.

Market indicators

Returns % (to 21 February 2025)

Global Market News

• Nvidia beat expectations with an 80% surge in net income and a 114% jump in full-year revenue, but slowing growth saw shares dip 1.5% in extended trading.
• Bitcoin tumbles 25% from it’s all-time high as the crypto selloff deepens. The coin dropped 5.5% to $79,627, reaching its lowest level since November 10( 2024). Be mindful of charts and algorithms that reinforce positive confirmation bias – they tell a story, but sometimes not always the one you should heed.
• Global markets showed mixed performance. The S&P 500 is up 4% in 2025 but has lagged behind Europe’s Stoxx 600 (+9%) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (+13%). Chinese ETFs have surged around 20%, reflecting stronger momentum in European and Asian markets.
• Oil prices have dropped to their lowest levels of the year due to global economic concerns and the potential resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war, which could lead to lifted sanctions on Moscow. Additionally, President Trump’s announcement of a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products has added to market uncertainty.
• China backed President Trump’s efforts to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine during the G20 summit in South Africa.
• While U.S. trade policies could create challenges for Europe, an end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict might be a game changer. Poland, which borders Ukraine, is already seeing strong investor confidence. Its stock market index has jumped 23% this year, making it one of the best performers globally. All sectors are up, with Financials leading the charge.
• Gold prices hit a record high of $2,940, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty.
• Investors hoping for Federal Reserve rate cuts may be in for a long wait. A strong job market, resilient economic growth, and persistent inflation suggest the Fed will hold rates steady for longer. Adding to the uncertainty, new government policies, including tariffs, could impact inflation and growth. Bond markets now expect just one rate cut in 2025, while some analysts believe the Fed may be done cutting rates altogether.

South Africa

• South African rugby bids farewell to Steven Kitshoff, a two-time World Cup winner, longtime Stormers stalwart and a powerhouse in the front row. Forced into early retirement due to a serious neck injury, Kitshoff leaves behind a legacy of grit, skill and leadership. Few could match his presence in the scrum, and whether in a Stormers jersey at Cape Town Stadium or in green and gold, he always led from the front. While it is not the ending anyone hoped for, his impact on the game will not be forgotten. Wishing him all the best in the next chapter.
• Ramaphosa downplays tensions with Trump, insisting that SA and the US will “find ways, avenues, and means” to relate to each other – though at this rate, solving the theory of quantum gravity might be the easier task.
• Inflation Edges Up: In January 2025, South Africa’s consumer inflation rose to 3.2% year-on-year from 3.0% in December, remaining within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range of 3% to 6%.
• Economic Growth Projections: The World Bank projects South Africa’s economic growth to recover from an estimated 0.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, contingent on policy implementation and infrastructure improvements.
• AfriForum takes the ANC to Washington. Lobbyists urged the U.S. to sanction ANC members linked to Zuma-era corruption, citing a list of those who “got off scot-free” under the Global Magnitsky Act.
• Trade tensions and VAT hike fears put SA inflation at risk. SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago warned that global trade uncertainty and a proposed VAT hike could reverse two years of slowing inflation. The national budget – delayed for the first time in post-apartheid history is now set for March 12, with the VAT hike reportedly off the table.

Food for Thought

• Samsung Started as a Grocery Store – In 1938, Samsung was founded in South Korea – not as an electronics company, but as a small grocery trading business. Today, it’s worth over $350 billion.
• The Man Who Skipped Apple Stock – In 1976, Ronald Wayne co-founded Apple with Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. Twelve days later, he sold his 10% stake for just $800. That stake would be worth over $300 billion today.
• How One Song Made $100 Million – Mariah Carey’s All I Want for Christmas Is You generates around $2.5 million in royalties every year. Since its release, it has earned over $100 million – all from a song she wrote in just 15 minutes.
• 1000x Cleaner – The air inside a semiconductor manufacturing plant is 1,000 times cleaner than a hospital operating room. Precision at its finest.
• South Africa is home to the world’s longest golf hole! The Extreme 19th at the Legend Golf & Safari Resort in Limpopo is so high up, you need a helicopter to reach the tee box. The par-3 hole sits atop a 400m-high cliff, and it takes nearly 30 seconds for a well-hit ball to reach the green below. Miss the fairway, and your ball might just become part of the wildlife safari!

Quote for the Month

“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.”

Robert Arnott

A Bit of History

The First Ever Stock Market – the world’s first stock exchange wasn’t in New York or London – it was in Amsterdam in 1602. The Dutch East India Company became the first publicly traded company, allowing investors to buy shares and receive dividends from its global trading empire. It was also the first company to issue bonds and stock options, shaping modern markets.

Over 400 years later, the principles of investing remain the same – owning a stake in productive businesses is still the best way to grow wealth over time!

Chart of the Month

The U.S. remains the world’s economic powerhouse, with 2.7% forecasted growth for 2025, while India leads emerging markets at 6.5%. Europe and China face headwinds, with the EU struggling under long-term challenges and China contending with structural slowdowns.
A potential Ukraine resolution could shift Europe’s outlook, but for now, U.S. and AI-driven growth in Asia are keeping the global economy afloat.

Quick Snapshot:

• U.S. Growth: 2.7% (IMF 2025 forecast)
• India Growth: 66.5% (IMF 2025 forecast)
• EU & China: Facing economic pressures
• AI Boom: Driving semiconductor demand in Asia

Can the U.S. keep carrying the load?

Wrap – Up: Tip for Your Financial Wellbeing

How Your Mind Can Cost You Time

Through the years, I have worked with individuals and families who have faced financial and retirement anxiety, not just because of behavior, but because they are often uncertain about their decisions, their portfolios, and whether they will truly be okay. The challenge is not just about knowing what to invest in but understanding how everything fits together to support long-term security.

Too often, this anxiety is exacerbated by the sheer volume of information, much of it conflicting, combined with the constant pressure of salesforces and brands pushing what they believe is the best solution for your financial “problems.”

The best financial defense, the suit of armor that protects you from emotional reactions and the noise of product selling, is a simple yet powerful question:

What do I actually need?

A well-structured plan will help you carefully define your objectives, ensuring that financial decisions align with what truly matters. That should be the foundation of your choices, not what simply looks or sounds attractive.

Simply wanting to make a lot of money is not a financial strategy. Without a clear purpose, it remains just an ambition. Every financial decision comes with a cost, whether it is risk, time, effort, or even your health.

The goal is not just to accumulate wealth but to take the least amount of calculated risk necessary to achieve financial security while freeing up as much time as possible.

At the core of financial freedom is time, the most valuable commodity of all. It is not just about having more money but about having the ability to spend less time on things you do not want to do and more time on what truly matters.

The things that truly matter are often realized too late in life and tend to revolve around time, relationships, purpose, and well-being. Here are a few that I believe make a real difference:

• Time with loved ones: No amount of money can buy back missed moments with family, children, and close friends.
• Health and well-being: Wealth means little if poor health prevents you from enjoying it. Many regret neglecting exercise, nutrition, and stress management.
• Experiences over possessions: Meaningful experiences create lasting happiness in ways that material things rarely do.
• Doing meaningful work: Instead of chasing status or wealth, many later wish they had pursued fulfilling work or passion projects that aligned with their values.
• Freedom and flexibility: Controlling your own time becomes a major priority.
• Giving back and making an impact: Later in life, many shift focus to helping others, mentoring, or contributing to a cause bigger than themselves.
• Self-improvement and personal growth: Investing in skills, knowledge, and personal development often becomes a priority when time feels more limited.

I hope this month’s mailer gave you something valuable to think about. Looking forward to catching up again at the end of March. Until then, and as always, I’m just a click away if you’d like more insight, guidance or assistance.

Take care, stay mindful, and enjoy the moments that matter.