The Inside Track – March Insights

31 March 2025

Welcome to the Ninth Edition of The Inside Track!
Markets. Money. The forces shaping them. No noise – just clear insights to help you stay ahead and make smarter financial moves.

March has been noisy. Global events, political shifts, and cultural divides have sparked strong, often conflicting opinions. Much of it is shaped by values, financial standing, and lived experience. It’s easy to fall into confirmation bias or to treat recent headlines as if they signal something permanent. But when emotions run high, it’s clarity that matters more than commentary.

This is also when investment planning proves its value. Over the past six weeks, markets have been volatile, and that volatility doesn’t appear to be easing soon. But this isn’t new, and it isn’t unusual. Corrections are part of how markets function. They’re not a sign that something is broken. In fact, they help prevent bubbles from forming and flush out speculative excess.

If markets didn’t correct, they’d be unhealthy. Speculation would run rampant and eventually lead to sharp, painful reversals. Pullbacks of 10 percent in a year, and 20 percent every four, are well within normal range. Sometimes more. But markets rebalance. They recover. And they move forward.

If you’re feeling uneasy, that’s understandable. But that’s also when a plan becomes most important. Trying to time the market, or jumping between positions without a change in your objective, usually does more harm than good. If your objective hasn’t changed, then your plan would already account for time. And in times like these, time and discipline are what carry returns, not knee-jerk reactions.

Market indicators

Returns % (to 28 March 2025)

Global Market News

• Tariffs Are Back in the Headlines – But Is There a Case for Them?

There’s been a lot of noise around Donald Trump’s recent comments on reintroducing tariffs. Reactions have been predictably divided, but stepping back from the politics, it’s worth asking: does he have a point?

The U.S. trade deficit is hovering near record highs, with significant imbalances against countries like China, the EU, and Mexico. Some argue the current system puts U.S. producers at a disadvantage – and the data suggests that’s not entirely off-base.

Here’s what the next 3 charts show when viewed without the noise

• How big the U.S. trade deficit has become

• Where current trade arrangements appear uneven

• The motivations behind tariff proposals –  beyond the headlines

📊 The U.S. Trade Deficit at Near-Record Levels

The U.S. goods trade deficit surged in 2024, with China, the EU, and Mexico accounting for the largest gaps.

Why it matters: This has added weight to calls for policies aimed at rebalancing trade – tariffs being one possible lever.

🧭 Trade Isn’t a Level Playing Field

This final slide shows tariff differences between the U.S. and its trading partners. Countries like China and India impose significantly higher tariffs on U.S. goods than the U.S. does on theirs.

It’s this gap that fuels arguments around fairness – and whether reciprocal tariffs are overdue.

⚖️ What Tariffs Are Meant to Achieve

Tariffs are being positioned as tools to:

• Shift supply chains (decoupling from countries like China)

• Support domestic production>

• Raise revenue

Impact ranges from short-term bargaining tools to long-term shifts in global trade dynamics. How they’re used, and where, makes all the difference.

What Happened Last Time?

This isn’t the first time Trump brought tariffs into play. In 2018–2019, he implemented a series of tariffs on Chinese goods, steel, and aluminum. Here’s how that played out:

• Markets stayed resilient. Despite headline risk, the S&P 500 remained solid. 2018 saw a dip due to broader concerns, but 2019 delivered a +28% return

• Winners and losers emerged. Industrial and export-heavy sectors came under pressure. Tech and domestic companies held up well

• Supply chains began shifting. Countries like Vietnam and Mexico became alternative manufacturing hubs

• Bottom line: Tariffs didn’t derail portfolios – but they did create pressure points that required careful navigation.

South Africa

• New US Ambassador to South Africa Nominated: Conservative activist and writer Leo Brent Bozell III has been nominated to serve as the next US ambassador to South Africa.

• Gold prices touched an all-time high on Monday at $3,120.20 as investors stressing over a global trade war and economic slowdown from the world’s biggest economy turned towards the safe-haven asset.

• Progress in Budget Negotiations: The African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) are reportedly close to reaching an agreement to pass the national budget. The proposed fiscal framework includes a 0.5 percentage point increase in the value-added tax (VAT) rate, alongside higher spending initiatives.

• Reuters reported that South Africa recorded ( Foreign Direct Investment) FDI inflows of R7.5 billion in the fourth quarter, a reversal from the R3.2 billion outflows in the previous quarter. This improvement was attributed to increased equity investments by non-resident parent companies into their South African subsidiaries.

Food for Thought

• Business History: The McDonald’s Mistake
  In the early 1960s, the McDonald brothers sold the entire business to Ray Kroc for $2.7 million. They kept one store. Kroc went on to build a global empire, while their lone location eventually folded.
  Lesson: The idea is important, but vision, scale, and timing make the difference.

• Behaviour: Why Waiting Is So Hard
  We all know time in the market matters. But delayed gratification isn’t just tough –  it actually lights up the brain in the same region as physical pain.No wonder staying invested is hard. It’s not just discipline. It’s neuroscience.

• Reality Check: Forecasting Explained
  An economist is someone who sees something working in practice.. and wonders if it will work in theory.
  Good planning doesn’t need perfect predictions. It needs clear thinking and margin for error.

Quote for the Month

A Bit of History

Spotify’s Long Game

For years, Spotify changed how we listen to music but couldn’t turn a profit. Between 2017 and 2023, it reported losses every year, including a €1.2 billion loss in 2017 and €462 million in 2023. Most of its revenue went to rights holders like record labels and publishers, leaving little margin to work with.

In 2024, that changed. Spotify reached 675 million users and posted its first annual profit of €1.1 billion. Years of investment, cost control, and user growth finally showed up in the numbers.

Lesson: Just because something takes time doesn’t mean it isn’t working. Real businesses often need years to prove themselves, especially when they challenge an entire industry.

Chart of the Month

What We Fear Depends on When We Were Born

This chart comes from the 2025 World Economic Forum in Davos, where the Global Risks Report revealed how differently each generation views the world’s biggest threats. From extreme weather to economic decline, age shapes perception – and that shapes decisions.

Wrap – Up: Tip for Your Financial Wellbeing

Planning Well, Living Better

One of the most underused tools in financial decision-making is perspective –  not market timing, not forecasting, not even product selection. Just perspective.

Financial perspective gives you the ability to zoom out, to separate short-term noise from long-term progress. It helps you weigh what really matters, resist reactive decisions, and stay anchored when the world feels unsettled.

The irony is, perspective isn’t something you can buy –  but it has more value than many of the things you can. It’s built through experience, reflection, and sometimes a trusted sounding board.

As the world shifts and headlines continue to stir uncertainty, remind yourself: lasting financial wellbeing doesn’t come from having all the answers. It comes from having the right lens –  and using it consistently.

And on that note, with Easter around the corner, it feels like a good time to pause. To step back, take stock, and reconnect with what matters. Whether that means faith, family, or simply a bit of stillness, it helps to reset the pace.

Not everything needs to be solved or rushed. Growth often happens in the quieter moments. Rest, patience, and perspective may not get much attention, but they do the heavy lifting in the background.

Wishing you and those close to you a peaceful and meaningful Easter. 

I hope this month’s mailer gave you something valuable to think about. Looking forward to catching up again at the end of April. Until then, and as always, I’m just a click away if you’d like insight, guidance or assistance.

Take care, stay mindful, and enjoy the moments that matter.